Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Ningxia from 2005 to 2022

This study visualized the agricultural carbon emissions of various cities in Ningxia from 2005 to 2022 by ArcGIS technology, and deeply explored the spatiotemporal variation characteristics. Based on the data of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, agricultural mechanization, ploughing, irrigation, etc., the carbon emission coefficient method was used to accurately calculate the carbon emissions and intensity. The ArcGIS technology was employed to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of carbon emissions. Moreover, the global Moran’s I was utilized to explore spatial correlation in agricultural carbon emissions in Ningxia. The results show that in terms of time variation, the total carbon emissions from agriculture in Ningxia generally show a fluctuating upward trend, reaching peaks in 2016 and then gradually decreasing. Carbon emission intensity rises first and then falls, and the downward trend was significant after 2005. In terms of spatial distribution, agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River diversion irrigation area are relatively high, while those in the southern mountainous areas are relatively low. The global Moran’s I shows a negative correlation. The local autocorrelation only occurred in 2022 (low-high outliers), and the correlation was relatively weak in other years. Further research has found that the traditional agricultural input methods in the early stage led to an increase in agricultural carbon emission intensity, while in the later stage, agricultural technological innovation, enhanced environmental awareness, and the promotion of national policies such as carbon peaking and carbon neutrality led to a decrease. The spatial distribution pattern is influenced by the unique geographical location and regional environment. In the Yellow River diversion irrigation area, due to the developed irrigation agriculture and high degree of intensification, as well as the large usage of chemical fertilizers and agricultural machinery, the carbon emissions are relatively high. Based on the above research conclusions, Ningxia should continuously promote agricultural technological innovation and optimize the agricultural layout to reduce carbon emission intensity and facilitate the green development of agriculture.