Identification of Cigar Planting Areas in Hainan Island Based on Meteorological Data and Research on Key Influencing Factors of Tobacco Leaf Components

In order to accurately identify the climatic regions suitable for cigar cultivation in Hainan Island, based on the meteorological data of Hainan Island from 1991 to 2020, The chemical composition of total sugars, reducing sugars (RS), alkaloids (Alk), potassium (K), and chlorine (Cl) in 165 cigar leaf samples were analyzed. The systematic cluster analysis (SCA) was conducted to delineate the climate suitability for cigar cultivation across the island. Additionally, and the random forest (RF) model was employed to identify the predominant climatic factors influencing cigar leaf quality and to predict variations in leaf composition. The results showed that three sub-regions of the southwest, central and northeastern parts of Hainan Island exhibit different spatial distribution patterns. The southwest region was most conducive to the production of high-quality cigars. The RF model demonstrated robust predictive performance for various leaf quality indicators, with R² values of 0.84 for RS, 0.81 for Cl, 0.74 for K, and 0.78 for K/Cl. Further analysis showed that temperature was a key influencing factor for TS and K, and precipitation was an important factor driving RS, C and Alk. The research results were conducive to scientifically understanding of climate-driven regional suitability for cigar cultivation, optimizing site selection and improving cigar leaf quality.