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数字普惠金融、乡村产业振兴与农民增收——基于陕甘宁157个县市面板数据的实证分析

Digital Inclusive Finance, Rural Industrial Revitalization and Farmers’ Income Increase: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of 157 Counties in Shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia

  • 摘要: 基于2014—2023年陕甘宁地区157个县市的面板数据,通过构建中介效应和调节效应模型,实证检验了数字普惠金融对乡村产业振兴和农民增收的影响。结果表明,数字普惠金融对农民增收具有显著的正向影响,且经稳健性与内生性检验后该结论仍成立;中介效应检验表明,数字普惠金融通过乡村产业振兴促进农民增收;调节效应检验表明,县域城镇化水平的提高能显著增强数字普惠金融对农民增收的效果;异质性分析表明,陕西省县域数字普惠金融对农民增收的影响最强,甘肃省次之,宁夏回族自治区不显著,此外,数字普惠金融对革命老区农民增收的效应更强。鉴于此,提出了加强数字普惠金融基础设施建设、加快推动乡村产业发展、推动数字普惠金融与城镇化协同发展、完善区域差异化的数字普惠金融政策等对策建议。

     

    Abstract: Based on panel data from 157 counties in Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia Region from 2014 to 2023, this study combines mediation and moderation models to empirically analyze the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural industrial revitalization and farmers’ income increase. The results show a significant positive link between digital finance and farmers’ income, which remains after robustness and endogeneity tests. Digital inclusive finance promotes farmers' income growth through the revitalization of rural industries. The test of the moderating effect shows that the improvement of the urbanization level in counties can significantly enhance the effect of digital inclusive finance on increasing farmers’ income. Heterogeneous analysis indicates that the impact of county-level digital inclusive finance in Shaanxi Province on farmers’ income growth is the strongest, followed by Gansu Province, not significant in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and is more pronounced in revolutionary old base areas. Therefore, the study puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions, such as strengthening the construction of digital inclusive finance infrastructure, accelerating the development of rural industries, promoting the coordinated development of digital inclusive finance and urbanization, and improving regional differentiated digital inclusive finance policies.