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宁夏土地利用碳排放的时空格局及碳平衡分区研究

Study on Spatiotemporal Pattern of Land Use Carbon Emissions and Carbon Balance Zoning in Ningxia

  • 摘要: 以宁夏回族自治区为研究对象,基于土地利用遥感解译数据、夜间灯光数据、社会经济统计数据与能源消费数据,采用碳排放系数法构建土地利用碳排放核算模型,测算耕地等用地类型的直接碳排放与建设用地的间接碳排放,进而得到净碳排放量;综合运用数理统计、GIS空间分析与空间自相关分析方法,揭示宁夏土地利用碳排放的时序演变、空间格局与空间关联性;引入碳排放经济承载系数(ECC)与碳汇生态承载系数(ESC)开展碳平衡分区。结果表明:2005—2025年宁夏净碳排放量持续增长,增幅达360.90%,碳源高度集中于建设用地,碳汇以林地、草地为主,整体呈北高南低的空间格局。县域尺度碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性,高—高集聚区集中于北部沿黄工业与城镇密集区,低—低集聚区稳定分布于南部生态保育区。ECC与ESC空间分异显著,碳平衡分区与区域产业结构、生态本底高度耦合。本研究将宁夏划分为低碳保持区、经济发展区、碳汇发展区和综合优化区,研究结果可为宁夏县域碳减排、碳汇提升及国土空间低碳优化提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Taking Ningxia as the research unit, based on land use remote sensing interpretation data, nighttime light data, socio-economic statistical data and energy consumption data, this study constructed a land use carbon emission accounting model using the carbon emission coefficient method, calculated direct carbon emissions from cultivated land and other land types, indirect carbon emissions from construction land, and then obtained net carbon emissions. Mathematical statistics, GIS spatial analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were comprehensively used to systematically reveal the temporal evolution characteristics, spatial pattern and spatial correlation of land use carbon emissions in Ningxia. The carbon emission economic carrying coefficient(ECC) and carbon sink ecological carrying coefficient(ESC) were introduced to carry out carbon balance zoning. The results showed that from 2005 to 2025, the net carbon emissions in Ningxia continued to grow with an increase of 360.90%. Carbon sources were highly concentrated in construction land, and carbon sinks were mainly forest land and grassland, showing a spatial pattern of “high in the north and low in the south”. At the county scale, carbon emissions had a significant positive spatial correlation. The high-high agglomeration areas were concentrated in the industrial and urban dense areas along the Yellow River in the north, and the low-low agglomeration areas were stably distributed in the southern ecological conservation areas. The spatial differentiation of ECC and ESC was significant, and the results of carbon balance zoning were highly coupled with regional industrial structure and ecological background. This study divided the study area into four functional zones: lowcarbon maintenance zone, economic development zone, carbon sink development zone and comprehensive optimization zone. It can provide a scientific basis for county-level carbon emission reduction, carbon sink enhancement and low-carbon optimization of territorial space in Ningxia.