Abstract:
Carbon compensation research is of great significance for implementing the “dual-carbon” goals and promoting regional green and low-carbon transformation. However, present studies mostly focus on evaluating carbon sequestration supply capacity, with insufficient exploration of inter-regional flows and compensation relationships. This paper takes the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object. Based on NPP(Net Primary Productivity) and carbon emission data, it quantifies carbon sequestration supply and demand. The supply-demand gap is used to identify supply areas and beneficiary areas. Carbon sequestration services are regarded as omnidirectional flows, and the ecological radiation model is employed to calculate inter-regional flow volumes. Subsequently, a carbon compensation model is constructed by integrating economic and social development coefficients to identify compensation amounts and spatial distribution characteristics for each region. The results show that:(1) There is a spatial mismatch between carbon sequestration service supply and demand in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Supply areas are mainly distributed in western regions rich in ecological resources, such as Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou. At the municipal level, they include cities like Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Pu'er City, and Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture. The demand areas are mainly concentrated in economically developed regions such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang and major urban clusters, especially provincial capitals such as Nanjing, Wuhan and Hefei.(2) Carbon sequestration service flows mainly exhibit a west-to-east gradient. The cumulative carbon sequestration service flow transported from western supply areas to central and eastern beneficiary areas reaches 372.40 million tons. Among these, Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and Pu'er City rank at the forefront, forming a structure of “western output and central and eastern benefit”, indicating that western ecological resources play a key role in the carbon balance of central and eastern urban agglomerations.(3) Carbon compensation funds overall flow from economically developed and high-demand carbon sequestration service regions to ecologically resource-rich carbon sequestration service supply areas. Jiangsu Province has the highest compensation amount at 5.401 billion yuan. The carbon compensation payments in Suqian City, Yancheng City and Huai'an City ranked among the highest, amounting to 603 million yuan, 484 million yuan, and 479 million yuan respectively. The research findings can provide a scientific basis for constructing cross-regional carbon compensation mechanisms and promoting coordinated regional emission reduction in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.