Abstract:
This paper utilizes meteorological data from 30 counties and districts in 4 cities and 1 district in northeastern Fujian from 1961 to 2020, focusing on the winter months (December to February of the following year). Key disaster-inducing factors, including the duration of winter low-temperature processes, the daily average minimum temperature, and the extreme minimum temperature, were combined with critical damage thresholds for major crops. Principal component analysis and other methods were applied to construct a regional cold and freezing damage index model, generating a long-term index series. Subsequently, the damage was classified into severity levels, and its changing characteristics were analyzed. Simultaneously, based on the frequency and probability of occurrence for each damage level, a risk index model for cold and freezing damage was established, followed by regional risk assessment and zoning. The results indicate that the frequency of cold and freezing damage in northeastern Fujian has significantly decreased over the years. The northwestern mountainous counties of Ningde City and most counties/cities in Nanping City (except Yanping) recorded the highest annual occurrence frequency (350~390 occurrences), making them high-frequency and high-index areas for cold and freezing damage. The southeastern cities and districts (Putian City and Pingtan District) were identified as low-index areas. The northwestern mountainous counties of Ningde City (Shouning, Zhouning, Zherong and Pingnan) and the western mountainous county of Nanping City (Guangze) were identified as high-risk areas (1.01~1.22). In contrast, the southeastern part of Fuzhou City (Changle and Fuqing), the southern counties/districts of Putian City, and Pingtan District were classified as low-risk areas (0.08~0.25). In northeastern Fujian, the occurrence frequency, damage index values, and risk index of cold and freezing damage all show an increasing trend from southeast to northwest. These parameters exhibit a significant positive correlation with altitude and latitude.