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闽东北作物寒冻害指数特征及风险区划分析

Analysis of Cold and Freezing Damage Index Characteristics and Risk Zoning of Crops in Northeastern Fujian

  • 摘要: 采用1961—2020年闽东北4市1区冬季(12月至翌年2月)30个县市区的气象数据,利用低温过程持续日数、日平均最低气温及极端最低气温等主要致灾因子,结合主要作物寒冻害临界值,应用主成分分析法等构建了区域寒冻害指数模型,并生成区域冬季寒冻害指数序列,进而对寒冻害等级进行了划分和变化特征分析,并基于寒冻害各等级的发生频次和发生概率,建立了作物寒冻害风险指数模型,进行区域风险评估。结果表明,闽东北地区的寒冻害发生频次随年份递增而显著减少,宁德市西北部山区县和南平市大部分县市区(延平区除外)年发生频次最高(350~390次),是寒冻害频发区和指数高值区,东南部市区(莆田市、平潭试验区)为指数低值区。宁德市西北部山区县(寿宁、周宁、柘荣、屏南)和南平市西部山区县(光泽)为寒冻害高风险区(1.01~1.22),而福州市东南部(长乐区、福清市)、莆田市南部县区、平潭试验区则为低风险区(0.08~0.25)。闽东北地区寒冻害的发生频次、寒冻害指数与风险指数均呈现由东南向西北递增的趋势,并且与海拔、纬度呈显著正相关。

     

    Abstract: This paper utilizes meteorological data from 30 counties and districts in 4 cities and 1 district in northeastern Fujian from 1961 to 2020, focusing on the winter months (December to February of the following year). Key disaster-inducing factors, including the duration of winter low-temperature processes, the daily average minimum temperature, and the extreme minimum temperature, were combined with critical damage thresholds for major crops. Principal component analysis and other methods were applied to construct a regional cold and freezing damage index model, generating a long-term index series. Subsequently, the damage was classified into severity levels, and its changing characteristics were analyzed. Simultaneously, based on the frequency and probability of occurrence for each damage level, a risk index model for cold and freezing damage was established, followed by regional risk assessment and zoning. The results indicate that the frequency of cold and freezing damage in northeastern Fujian has significantly decreased over the years. The northwestern mountainous counties of Ningde City and most counties/cities in Nanping City (except Yanping) recorded the highest annual occurrence frequency (350~390 occurrences), making them high-frequency and high-index areas for cold and freezing damage. The southeastern cities and districts (Putian City and Pingtan District) were identified as low-index areas. The northwestern mountainous counties of Ningde City (Shouning, Zhouning, Zherong and Pingnan) and the western mountainous county of Nanping City (Guangze) were identified as high-risk areas (1.01~1.22). In contrast, the southeastern part of Fuzhou City (Changle and Fuqing), the southern counties/districts of Putian City, and Pingtan District were classified as low-risk areas (0.08~0.25). In northeastern Fujian, the occurrence frequency, damage index values, and risk index of cold and freezing damage all show an increasing trend from southeast to northwest. These parameters exhibit a significant positive correlation with altitude and latitude.