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农户视角下耕地“非粮化”特征及影响因素研究——基于湖南省10个村的调查数据

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Non-grain Use of Cultivated Land from Farmers' Perspective Based on Survey Data of 10 Villages in Hunan Province

  • 摘要: 基于湖南省10个村131户农户调研数据,从微观视角解析耕地“非粮化”特征,利用XGBoost-SHAP模型、双变量相关性分析、多元线性回归模型等方法识别耕地“非粮化”的关键影响因素。结果表明:(1)不同行政村的耕地“非粮化”率差异显著(1.60%~95.20%),经济作物规模化种植与旅游业发展是主要驱动因素,但部分村庄依托地形与区位禀赋探索出经济与粮食生产的协同路径;(2)农户样本整体耕地“非粮化”率为19.69%,剔除8户种粮大户后飙升至47.17%,凸显种粮大户的粮产稳定器作用;(3)农业收入占比、耕地面积、农业保险及耕地流转面积是影响耕地“非粮化”的重要因素,且呈现出规模异质性。小农户(0~0.67 hm2)的农业收入占比与耕地“非粮化”率显著正相关;中等规模农户(0.67~3.50 hm2)的户主年龄、耕地流转面积与耕地“非粮化”率显著负相关;种粮大户(≥3.50 hm2)则因种粮的规模效益及政府的培训指导显著降低耕地“非粮化”。基于此,提出对策建议:(1)按平原、丘陵地形实施差异化耕地用途管控,平原区强制粮食种植比例并提高补贴;(2)严格约束旅游型、工商资本型村庄的耕地占用规模与经济作物扩张规模;(3)重点培育种粮大户,强化农业培训与保险政策,保障小农户种粮收益。

     

    Abstract: Based on survey data from 131 rural households in 10 villages of Hunan Province, this study analyzes the characteristics of cultivated land “non-grain production” from a micro-scale perspective, and uses bivariate correlation analysis and multiple linear regression models to analyze the key influencing factors. The results show that:(1) Significant inter-village disparities in non-grain rates(1.60%~95.20%) were observed, primarily driven by large-scale cash crop cultivation and tourism development. However, some villages achieved synergy between economic growth and grain production through location-specific approaches leveraging terrain and geographical advantages.(2) The overall non-grain rate was 19.69% across the sample, but this surged to 47.17% after excluding 8 large-scale households, highlighting the stabilizing role of large-scale growers in grain production.(3) The proportion of agricultural income, the scale of cultivated land, agricultural insurance, and the area of cultivated land transfer were important factors influencing the non-grain use of cultivated land, and they showed heterogeneity in scale. There was a significant positive correlation between farm income share and non-grain rates for smallholders(0~0.67 hm2). Age and land-inflow area showed significant negative correlations with non-grain rates for medium-scale farmers(0.67~3.50 hm2), and large-scale growers(≥3.50 hm2) significantly reduced their non-grain tendency through participation in agricultural training. Policy recommendations are put forward such as implementing differentiated cultivated land use regulations based on terrain(plains/hills), with mandatory grain-planting ratios and increased subsidies in plain areas, imposing strict constraints on cultivated land occupation and cash crop expansion in tourism-oriented and enterprise-driven villages, and prioritizing support for large-scale grain growers, enhancing agricultural training and insurance programs, and securing grain production income for smallholders.