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数字经济对乡村振兴的影响及作用机制研究——基于中介效应和门槛效应的检验

Impact and Mechanism of Digital Economy on Rural Revitalization: An Empirical Test Based on Mediating Effect and Threshold Effect

  • 摘要: 数字经济作为助推经济高质量发展的核心动力,对破解城乡二元结构、助力乡村全面振兴具有深远的战略意义。基于2011—2022年全国30个省份的面板数据,运用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型与门槛效应模型,实证探究了数字经济对乡村振兴的影响路径及作用机制。结果表明:(1)数字经济对乡村振兴具有显著的促进作用,且该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;(2)中介效应机制分析表明,数字经济通过赋能城乡融合发展推动乡村振兴进程,城乡融合发展在数字经济与乡村振兴中发挥了部分中介效应;(3)异质性分析表明,数字经济对乡村振兴存在明显的区域差异效应,中西部地区影响显著,东部地区不明显;胡焕庸线西北侧影响显著,东南侧影响未显现。(4)门槛效应分析表明,在数字经济对乡村振兴的影响中,当经济发展水平跨过门槛值时,数字经济对乡村振兴的促进作用减弱,存在边际递减效应。基于此,应加快数字经济发展并实施差异化区域推进策略,以城乡融合为关键路径,充分释放数字经济在推动乡村振兴与区域协调中的深层潜能,促进乡村全面振兴。

     

    Abstract: As a core driver of high-quality economic development, the digital economy holds profound strategic value in addressing the urban-rural dual structure and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization. Based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022, the study employs the two-way fixed effect model, mediation effect model and threshold effect model to empirically explore the impact pathways and mechanisms of the digital economy on rural revitalization. The results show that: (1) The digital economy significantly promotes rural revitalization, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness tests. (2) The analysis of the mediation effect shows that the digital economy promotes rural revitalization by driving urban-rural integration, with urban-rural integration being a key mediating variable. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of the digital economy on rural revitalization varies significantly across regions, being significant in central and western regions but not in eastern regions. It also shows a significant effect on the northwest side of the Huhuanyong Line while not on the southeast side. (4) Threshold effect analysis shows that during the impact of the digital economy on rural revitalization, when the level of economic development crosses a threshold, the promoting effect of the digital economy diminishes, indicating a marginal decreasing effect. Based on these findings, it is necessary to accelerate the development of the digital economy and implement differentiated regional advancement strategies, using urban-rural integration as a key pathway to fully unleash the deep potential of the digital economy in promoting rural revitalization and regional coordination, thereby advancing comprehensive rural revitalization.