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新型基础设施建设对农业经济韧性影响的研究

Impact of New Infrastructure on Agricultural Economic Resilience

  • 摘要: 基于2013—2023年中国30个省份的面板数据,通过双向固定效应模型实证分析发现,新基建对农业经济韧性具有显著正向影响,且该结论在经过稳健性检验、内生性检验及多种模型设定后依然成立;机制检验表明,新基建通过促进农业产业结构升级和农业技术创新两条路径间接提升农业经济韧性;新基建对农业经济韧性的影响存在非线性门槛效应,面板门槛模型结果显示,新基建对农业经济韧性的促进作用呈现边际递增的非线性特征。随着新基建水平的提升,其赋能效果逐渐增强。异质性分析表明,东部地区与高要素市场发育程度地区的农业经济韧性提升效果更为显著,而西部和低市场化地区的效果相对较弱。基于此,提出了加快推进新型基础设施建设,并重点向农业领域倾斜;推动农业产业结构优化与技术融合创新;实施差异化区域政策,补齐中西部和农村地区数字短板;强化政策协同与长效机制建设等政策建议。

     

    Abstract: Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2023, this study conducts an empirical analysis using a two-way fixed effects model. The results show that new infrastructure construction has a significant positive impact on agricultural economic resilience, and this conclusion remains valid after robustness tests, endogeneity treatment, and various model specifications. Mechanism tests indicate that new infrastructure indirectly enhances agricultural economic resilience through two pathways:promoting the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure and advancing agricultural technological innovation. There is a non-linear threshold effect in the impact of new infrastructure on agricultural economic resilience. The results of the panel threshold model reveal that the promoting effect of new infrastructure on agricultural economic resilience presents a non-linear characteristic of marginal increase. With the improvement of new infrastructure level, its enabling effect gradually strengthens. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the promotion effect on agricultural economic resilience is more significant in eastern regions and areas with a high level of factor market development, while the effect is relatively weaker in western regions and areas with a low level of marketization. Accordingly, it is necessary to accelerate the advancement of new infrastructure with a focus on tilting towards the agricultural sector, promote the optimization of agricultural industrial structure and the integrated innovation of technology, implement differentiated regional policies to make up for the digital gaps in central and western regions as well as rural areas, and strengthen policy coordination and the construction of long-term mechanisms.