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经济政策不确定性对城乡收入差距影响的理论分析与实证检验

Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test on Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Urban-rural Income Gap

  • 摘要: 聚焦经济政策不确定性对城乡收入差距的影响,基于中国2009—2023年省级面板数据,利用面板数据固定效应模型、广义矩估计、工具变量回归等计量方法,结合多种稳健性检验方法,开展了理论分析和实证检验。结果表明:经济政策不确定性对城乡收入差距具有显著的扩大效应。基于收入视角的机制分析表明:农村居民收入所受冲击大于城镇居民是经济政策不确定性扩大城乡收入差距的重要机制。异质性分析显示:在市场化水平高、基础设施完善、人力资本水平低的地区,其经济政策不确定性对城乡收入差距产生了显著正向影响;经济政策不确定性对城乡收入差距的扩大作用随着城乡收入差距分位点的提高而增大。基于此,建议通过降低经济政策不确定性,优化城乡收入分配结构,为推动全体人民共同富裕提供政策制定和优化层面的支持。

     

    Abstract: Focusing on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the income gap between urban and rural areas, this paper uses econometric methods such as panel data fixed-effect model, generalized moment estimation, and instrumental variable regression, combined with a variety of robustness tests, and uses China's provincial panel data from 2009 to 2023 as samples for theoretical analysis and empirical testing. The results show that economic policy uncertainty has a significant widening effect on the income gap between urban and rural areas. Mechanism analysis from the perspective of income shows that the impact on rural residents' income being greater than that on urban residents is an important mechanism for the expansion of the income gap between urban and rural areas due to economic policy uncertainty. Heterogeneity analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on the urban-rural income gap in regions with high marketization, perfect infrastructure and low human capital. The effect of economic policy uncertainty on the urban-rural income gap increases with the increase of the quantile of the urban-rural income gap. Based on this, it is suggested to improve the income distribution between urban and rural areas by decreasing t economic policy uncertainty, so as to provide support from policy-making and optimization for promoting common prosperity for all the people.