高级检索

高原城市生态韧性水平空间评估及其驱动因素识别——以拉萨市为例

Spatial Assessment of Ecological Resilience Levels in Plateau Cities and Their Driving Factors: A Case Study of Lhasa City

  • 摘要: 基于抵抗力、适应力和恢复力的城市生态韧性评估模型,以拉萨市为例,评估了其生态韧性空间布局,并利用空间自相关分析法探讨了拉萨市的生态韧性分区管理,以及运用地理加权回归(GWR)模型分析了拉萨市生态韧性水平的主要驱动因子,并提出了相关建议。结果表明:(1)拉萨市大部分区域的生态韧性处于中等水平,占54.34%,主要分布在东部、中部和西南部;高韧性区域占比最少,仅11.80%,主要分布于北部、西北部及中南部沿河流域;(2)低韧性区域占比33.86%,集中分布在纳木湖乡、续迈乡、帮堆乡、甘丹曲果镇等地,说明这些区域的抗干扰、适应及恢复能力较弱,需要因地制宜地管理其生态韧性,从而提高其生态风险防范能力;(3)GWR分析表明,拉萨市的生产总值和降雨对生态韧性水平有积极的影响,而人口和城市的多功能性则有负面的影响,4个因素的影响力呈现自西南向东北的阶梯性变化。

     

    Abstract: This paper constructs an urban ecological resilience assessment model based on resistance, adaptability, and recovery, using Lhasa as a case study. It evaluates the spatial distribution of ecological resilience and employs spatial autocorrelation analysis to explore ecological resilience zoning management. Finally, the study applies the geographically weighted regression(GWR) model to analyze the main driving factors influencing urban ecological resilience and provides relevant recommendations. The results show that:(1) The majority of Lhasa's areas have medium-level ecological resilience, accounting for 54.34%, distributed in the eastern, central, and southwestern regions. High-resilience areas occupy the smallest proportion(11.80%), located in the northern, northwestern, and central-southern river basin regions.(2) Low-resilience areas, accounting for 33.86%, are concentrated in Namu Lake Township, Xumai Township, Bangdui Township, and Gandan Chugou Town, indicating weak resistance, adaptability, and recovery capacity in these regions. These areas require localized ecological resilience management to improve ecological risk prevention capabilities.(3) The GWR analysis shows that GDP and rainfall have a positive impact on ecological resilience, while population and urban multifunctionality have a negative impact. The influence of these four factors exhibits a stepwise change from southwest to northeast.