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土地转包对农业种植结构“趋粮化”的影响研究

Effect of Land Subcontracting on “Grain-oriented” Agricultural Planting Structure

  • 摘要: 基于2009—2021年中国30个省(区、市)的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型,从全国视角探讨土地转包对农业种植结构“趋粮化”的影响及其区域异质性。结果表明:土地转包显著促进了农业种植结构“趋粮化”;异质性分析表明,土地转包对农业种植结构“趋粮化”的促进作用在干旱地区与非粮食主产区更为显著;流入农户会增强土地转包对农业种植结构“趋粮化”的促进作用,而流入合作社会则会削弱该作用。基于此,提出完善土地流转服务体系、实施分区治理策略、建立差异化主体行为引导机制等建议,旨在为差异化土地流转政策制定提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on panel data from 30 provinces(autonomous regions, municipalities) in China from 2009 to 2021, this study employs a two-way fixed-effect model to investigate the impact of land subcontracting on the grain-oriented adjustment of agricultural planting structures and its regional heterogeneity from a national perspective. The results show that land subcontracting significantly promotes the grain-oriented adjustment of agricultural planting structures. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that this promoting effect is more pronounced in arid regions and non-major grain-producing areas. Further analysis demonstrates that when land flows into individual farmers, it enhances the grain-oriented restructuring effect of land subcontracting, whereas when transferred to cooperatives, it diminishes this effect. Accordingly, it is proposed to improve the land transfer service system, implement zoning governance strategies, and establish differentiated guidance mechanisms for stakeholder behavior. These suggestions aim to provide evidence-based references for designing differentiated land transfer policies.