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秦岭山地生态碳汇的时空变化特征及其影响因素分析

Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Ecological Carbon Sink in Qinling Mountains

  • 摘要: 为深入了解秦岭山地生态碳汇的时空变化特征及其影响因素,以2000—2023年净初级生产力(NPP)数据为基础,结合土壤异养呼吸模型估算秦岭山地植被的净生态系统生产力(NEP),采用Theil-Sen Median斜率估计、Mann-Kendall(M-K)显著性检验及地理探测器等方法,分析秦岭山地植被NEP的时空演变特征及其驱动因子。结果表明:2000—2023年,秦岭山地植被NEP整体呈波动上升趋势,年均增幅为5.0 g C/(m2·a),表明区域植被固碳能力持续增强;在空间分布上,秦岭山地的年均NEP呈西高东低的特征,76.5%区域的NEP保持稳定或呈增加趋势。地理探测器分析显示,植被归一化指数(NDVI)对秦岭山地植被NEP的空间分异解释力最强,年均降水量、坡度、年平均气温及坡向的解释力也较强,NDVI与降水的交互作用对NEP的影响非常显著。综上,在未来提升秦岭山地固碳能力时,需重点关注多因子的协同作用,以实现更高效的固碳效果。

     

    Abstract: To gain a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal variation characteristics in the ecological carbon sink of the Qinling Mountains and their influencing factors, this study selected net primary productivity(NPP) data from 2000 to 2023 and combined it with a soil heterotrophic respiration model to calculate the net ecosystem productivity(NEP) of vegetation. The Theil-Sen Median slope estimation, Mann-Kendall(M-K) significance test and geodetector methods were employed to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of vegetation NEP and its driving factors in the Qinling Mountains. The results show that during the period from 2000 to 2023, the NEP of vegetation in the Qinling Mountains shows an overall upward trend with fluctuations, with an average annual increase of 5.0 g C/(m2·a), indicating that the vegetation’s carbon sequestration capacity is continuously strengthening. The average annual NEP of the Qinling Mountains exhibits a spatial distribution pattern of being higher in the west and lower in the east, with 76.5% of the area remaining unchanged or increasing. The geodetector analysis reveals that the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) has the strongest explanatory power for the NEP of vegetation in the Qinling Mountains, while annual precipitation, slope, average annual temperature and aspect have relatively strong explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of NEP. The interaction between NDVI and precipitation also has a very significant impact on NEP. Therefore, in future efforts to enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of the Qinling Mountains, the synergistic effects of multiple factors should be given priority to achieve more efficient carbon sequestration outcomes.