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基于CMIP6的山西玉米高温热害变化特征研究

Variation Characteristics of Heat Damage of Maize in Shanxi Province Based on CMIP6 Projections

  • 摘要: 基于1970—2014年CN05.1实测历年逐日最高气温资料、1970—2100年CMIP6气候模式日最高气温资料、2000—2014年山西春、夏玉米实测生育期资料,在对CMIP6各气候模式数据降尺度校正的基础上,通过贝叶斯模式集合平均得到校正后的最高气温数据,并基于校正后的气象资料对历史和未来一段时期的山西玉米高温热害进行评价。结果表明:(1)通过对CMIP6最高气温数据降尺度校正,R2提高了5.4%~21.0%,RMSE减小了27.8%~79.7%,有效减小了系统误差,贝叶斯多模式集合平均有效降低了模拟误差,保证了评估结果的可信度。(2)历史时期春玉米高温热害的高发区主要位于吕梁山以西一带及晋东南的晋城南部地区,危害热积温(Heat degree-days, HDD)一般小于50 ℃·d,最快以34.3 ℃·d/10 a的速率下降;夏玉米高温热害的高发区主要位于临运盆地地区,HDD一般在50~90 ℃·d之间,且该区南部以0~13.6 ℃·d/10 a的速率升高,北部则以-12.8~0℃· d/10 a的速率下降。(3)未来山西玉米高温热害的高风险区与历史时期玉米危害热积温的高值区一致;除SSP1-2.6情景外,其余3种模式情景下山西玉米HDD随时间和辐射强度整体呈增加趋势,并在SSP5-8.5情景下于21世纪末的20年间达到最大值。研究结果对科学应对气候变化、趋利避害保粮食安全具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: Based on the historical daily maximum temperature data measured by CN05.1 from 1970 to 2014, the daily maximum temperature data of the CMIP6 from 1970 to 2100, and the measured growth period data of spring and summer maize in Shanxi from 2000 to 2014, the maximum temperature data of CMIP6 were downscaled and corrected, and the corrected maximum temperature data was obtained through the method of Bayesian model averaging. Based on the corrected meteorological data, the heat damage of maize in Shanxi in the past and future periods were evaluated. The results showed that: (1) R2 were increased by 5.4%~21.0% and RMSE were reduced by 27.8%~79.7% through downscaling correction, which effectively reduced the system errors, and simulation errors were reduced through the method of Bayesian model averaging, and ensured the reliability of assessment results in heat damage. (2) In the historical period, the high incidence area of heat damage of spring maize was mainly located in the west of Lvliang Mountain and the south of Jincheng in the southeast of Shanxi. The values of Heat degree days (HDD) were generally less than 50 ℃·d, and showed a decreasing trend at the fastest rate of 34.3 ℃·d/10 a. The high incidence area of heat damage of summer maize was mainly located in Linyun Basin. The values of HDD were generally range from 50 ℃·d to 90 ℃·d, which increased in the south at a rate of 0 ℃·d/10 a to 13.6 ℃·d/10 a and declined in the north at a rate of -12.8 ℃·d/10 a to 0 ℃·d/10 a. (3) The high risk area of heat damage of maize in the future is consistent with the area with the high values of HDD in the historical period. Besides, except SSP1-2.6, HDD of maize in Shanxi showed an overall increasing trend with time and radiation intensity under the other three model scenarios. HDD of maize reached the maximum value in the last 20 years of the 21st century under the scenario of SSP5-8.5. The study will be of great significance to scientifically addressing climate change and ensuring food security by taking advantage of opportunities and avoiding risks.