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2005—2022年宁夏农业碳排放的时空变化特征

Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Ningxia from 2005 to 2022

  • 摘要: 利用ArcGIS技术对2005—2022年宁夏各市农业碳排放情况进行了可视化分析,深入探究了其时空变化特征。在综合化肥、农药、农膜、农用机械化、翻耕、灌溉等数据的基础上,运用碳排放系数法精确测算了农业碳排放量和农业碳排放强度,剖析了宁夏农业碳排放的空间分布规律,并通过全局Moran’s I指数分析了宁夏农业碳排放的空间相关性。结果表明:在时间变化上,宁夏农业碳排放总量整体呈波动上升趋势,并在2016年达到峰值后逐渐下降。碳排放强度先升后降,2005年之后下降趋势显著;在空间分布上,引黄灌区农业碳排放相对较高,南部山区相对较低。全局Moran’s I指数呈负相关,局部自相关性仅在2022年出现低—高异常值,其他年份的相关性较弱。进一步研究发现,前期传统农业投入方式使农业碳排放强度上升,而后期随着农业技术创新、环保意识增强,以及在国家碳达峰、碳中和等政策的推动下而有所下降。空间分布格局受独特地理位置和区域环境的影响,引黄灌区因灌溉农业发达、集约化程度高,化肥和农用机械使用量大,导致碳排放偏高。因此,宁夏应持续推进农业技术革新、优化农业布局,以降低碳排放强度,助力农业绿色发展。

     

    Abstract: This study visualized the agricultural carbon emissions of various cities in Ningxia from 2005 to 2022 by ArcGIS technology, and deeply explored the spatiotemporal variation characteristics. Based on the data of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, agricultural mechanization, ploughing, irrigation, etc., the carbon emission coefficient method was used to accurately calculate the carbon emissions and intensity. The ArcGIS technology was employed to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of carbon emissions. Moreover, the global Moran’s I was utilized to explore spatial correlation in agricultural carbon emissions in Ningxia. The results show that in terms of time variation, the total carbon emissions from agriculture in Ningxia generally show a fluctuating upward trend, reaching peaks in 2016 and then gradually decreasing. Carbon emission intensity rises first and then falls, and the downward trend was significant after 2005. In terms of spatial distribution, agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River diversion irrigation area are relatively high, while those in the southern mountainous areas are relatively low. The global Moran’s I shows a negative correlation. The local autocorrelation only occurred in 2022 (low-high outliers), and the correlation was relatively weak in other years. Further research has found that the traditional agricultural input methods in the early stage led to an increase in agricultural carbon emission intensity, while in the later stage, agricultural technological innovation, enhanced environmental awareness, and the promotion of national policies such as carbon peaking and carbon neutrality led to a decrease. The spatial distribution pattern is influenced by the unique geographical location and regional environment. In the Yellow River diversion irrigation area, due to the developed irrigation agriculture and high degree of intensification, as well as the large usage of chemical fertilizers and agricultural machinery, the carbon emissions are relatively high. Based on the above research conclusions, Ningxia should continuously promote agricultural technological innovation and optimize the agricultural layout to reduce carbon emission intensity and facilitate the green development of agriculture.