Abstract: Based on land-use data and various driving factor data from the Ili River Valley, this study uses carbon source/ sink calculation methods and the PLUS model to analyze and predict the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of land use carbon sources/sinks and carbon neutrality gaps in the Ili River Valley from 2000 to 2030. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, grassland covers the largest area in the Ili River Valley, with an average proportion of approximately 61.09%. The area of grassland transitioned to farmland and unused land is 210800 hectares and 83000 hectares, respectively. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the total carbon emissions in the Ili River Valley increased by 28.9528 million tons, with a significant change in the carbon emission pattern. (3) From 2000 to 2020, carbon sequestration in the Ili River Valley decreases by 206700 tons, with a basically stable carbon sequestration pattern. From 2005 to 2010, carbon sequestration decreases significantly in all counties and cities. (4) From 2000 to 2030, the carbon neutrality gap increases by 38.1669 million tons, with a significant change in the pattern of the gap. To achieve the“dual carbon” goals in the future, while protecting the environment, emphasis should be placed on controlling carbon emissions from energy consumption and agriculture.