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基于动态QCA中部地区耕地利用生态效率测度及其影响因素研究

Research on Measurement of Cultivated Land Use Ecological Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in Central Region Based on Dynamic QCA

  • 摘要: 基于2011—2022年中部六省地级市面板数据,综合运用超效率SBM模型与动态定性比较分析(QCA)方法,探究中部地区耕地利用生态效率(CLUE)的时空演变规律及其影响因素的多维组态路径。结果表明:中部六省CLUE在时序上呈波动上升趋势,但省际间呈现出显著空间非均衡性;中部六省高CLUE值的实现依赖多元条件的协同作用,其中复种指数主导型和气温与城镇化协同影响型两类组态模式可以驱动高CLUE值,且各城市在耕地绿色发展中并不遵循一致的组态路径。由此提出地方政府可以通过差异化配置技术路径与制度激励,推动耕地利用生态效率提升从单一要素驱动向多元协同治理转型的建议,以期为粮食主产区耕地的可持续利用提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in six central provinces from 2011 to 2022, the super-efficient SBM model and the dynamic qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method were used to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land use ecological efficiency (CLUE) and the multi-dimensional configuration path of its influencing factors. The results show that the CLUE of the six central provinces presents a fluctuating upward trend in time series, but there is a significant spatial imbalance among the provinces. The realization of high CLUE in the central region depends on the synergy of multiple conditions, and there are two types of configuration modes that could drive high CLUE, namely “multiple cropping index dominant” and “temperature and urbanization synergistic influence”, and the cities do not follow a consistent configuration path in the green development of cultivated land. Therefore, it is proposed that local governments can promote the transformation of cultivated land ecological efficiency from “single factor driven” to “multiple collaborative governance” through differentiated allocation technology paths and institutional incentives, so as to provide a scientific basis for the sustainable use of cultivated land in major grain producing areas.