Abstract: Grain production subsidy policies constitute a core component of China’s agricultural support and protection system. This paper examines the evolution of Chinese subsidy targets, subsidy criteria, and support intensity since 2004, focusing on their historical context, institutional development and implementation measures, particularly evaluating policy effectiveness. Over nearly two decades, these policies have transitioned from broad coverage to targeted precision. At the systemic level, scholars widely acknowledge that grain production subsidies have significantly contributed to raising farmers’ incomes, improving agricultural productivity, and stabilizing grain output. At the individual policy level, price support mechanisms have proven effective in boosting production, increasing incomes, and stabilizing grain prices. Income support programs have directly enhanced rural household earnings. Input subsidies (agricultural materials) have incentivized production investments to improve quality and efficiency, and agricultural insurance subsidies have mitigated production risks and stabilized agrarian operations. In the context of advancing agricultural modernization and constructing a new support and protection framework, this study proposes refining policy design by shifting from“broad coverage” to“strategic prioritization”, accelerating the“yellow-to-green” and “yellow-to-blue” transition processes, and dynamically adjusting policy objectives to align with evolving agricultural demands, thereby enhancing overall policy efficacy.