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1985—2022年山南冬小麦生育期对气候变化的响应特征及其驱动机制研究

Response Characteristics of Winter Wheat Growth Period to Climate Change in Shannan from 1985 to 2022 and Their Driving Mechanisms

  • 摘要: 基于西藏山南农业气象观测站1985—2022年的冬小麦生育期观测数据及气象资料,阐述了气候变化对冬小麦生育期的影响及其响应机制。结果表明:山南冬小麦生长季气温上升明显,最高气温增速达0.42℃/10 a,日照时数增速达67.12 h/10 a,而相对湿度呈下降趋势,降幅为0.36%/10 a,尤其是当年12月至次年3月下降显著。冬小麦生育期天数呈阶段性变化,营养生长期(出苗至分蘖期)延长了8.49 d/10 a,而营养生殖生长期(分蘖至抽穗期)和生殖生长期(抽穗至成熟)分别缩短了6.32、3.01 d/10 a。关键生育期气象因子变化明显,如越冬期最低气温下降了0.11℃/10 a,可能会增加冻害风险;灌浆期相对湿度大幅上升了20.67%/10 a,会影响籽粒品质和产量。全生育期缩短了0.84 d/10 a,成熟期提前了5.92 d/10 a,可能与温度升高及光热资源优化有关。

     

    Abstract: Based on the observation data and meteorological data of winter wheat growth period from 1985 to 2022 at Shannan Agricultural Meteorological Observation Station in Xizang, this study expounded the impact of climate change on winter wheat growth period and its response mechanism. The results showed that during the growing season of winter wheat in Shannan, the temperature significantly increased, with a maximum temperature growth rate of 0.42 ℃/10 a, and the sunshine hours increased at a rate of 67.12 h/10 a, while the relative humidity showed a decreasing trend, with a decrease of 0.36%/10 a, especially from December of that year to March of the following year. The growth period of winter wheat shows phased changes, with an extended nutritional growth period (emergence-tillering) of 8.49 d/10 a, The nutritional reproductive growth period (tillering-heading) and reproductive growth period (heading-maturity) were shortened by 6.32 and 3.01 d/10 a, respectively. The meteorological factors during the critical growth period have a significant impact, such as a decrease in the lowest temperature during the wintering period (-0.11℃/10 a), which may increase the risk of frost damage. The significant increase in humidity during the grain filling period (20.67%/10 a) may affect grain quality and yield. The shortening of the entire reproductive period (0.84 d/10 a) and the advancement of the maturation period (5.92 d/10 a) may be related to the increase in temperature and optimization of photothermal resources.

     

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