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干旱区城市绿色空间生态韧性评估及模拟——以乌鲁木齐市为例

Assessment and Simulation of Ecological Resilience of Urban Green Space in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Urumqi

  • 摘要: 基于乌鲁木齐市2000—2020年5期的土地利用数据,构建了压力—状态—响应(PSR)模型和探究了其绿色空间生态韧性时空变化规律,并运用PLUS模型对2030年乌鲁木齐市绿色空间生态韧性格局进行多情景模拟。结果表明:(1) 2000—2020年乌鲁木齐市生态韧性呈逐年下降的趋势,呈现出“中心城区低、外围高”的空间分布格局,生态韧性的高低与城市扩张存在一定的相关性,且绿色空间是生态韧性的主要贡献景观。(2)在自然发展情景下,乌鲁木齐市的生态韧性水平相对均衡,但整体韧性水平有待提升;在城镇发展情景下,人类活动对生态系统的干扰显著,导致生态韧性水平大幅下降,需要引起高度重视;在生态保护情景下,通过强化生态保护措施,乌鲁木齐市的生态韧性水平得到了显著提升,尤其是极高韧性区域为城市可持续发展提供了有力的支撑。因此,提出加强城市规划和管理、限制建设用地的过度扩张、保护绿色空间和自然景观、推进生态修复等策略。

     

    Abstract: Based on the land use data of Urumqi from 2000 to 2020 for five periods, pressure-state-response (PSR) model was constructed to explore the temporal change law of ecological resilience of green space, and PLUS model was used to simulate the multi-scenario setting of the ecological resilience pattern of Urumqi in 2030. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the ecological resilience of Urumqi showed a declining trend year by year, and showed a distribution pattern of“low in central China and high in four areas” in space. The level of ecological resilience has a certain correlation with urban expansion, and green space is the main contribution of ecological resilience. (2) Under the natural development scenario, the ecological resilience level of Urumqi is relatively balanced, but the overall resilience level needs to be improved. Under the scenario of urban development, human activities significantly disturb the ecosystem, leading to a significant decline in the level of ecological resilience, which needs to be paid great attention to. Under the ecological protection scenario, the ecological resilience level of Urumqi has been significantly improved by strengthening ecological protection measures, especially the emergence of extremely high resilience areas, which provides strong support for the sustainable development of the city. Therefore, strengthening urban planning and management, limiting the excessive expansion of construction land, protecting green space and natural landscape, and promoting ecological restoration are effective strategies to reduce the interference of urban ecological pressure and improve the level of ecological resilience.

     

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