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气候变暖对长江中下游地区双季稻生育期的影响

Effects of Climate Warming on Growth Period of Double-cropping Rice in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

  • 摘要: 利用江西省12个农业气象观测站的双季稻生育期资料和1994—2023年的逐日平均气温数据,对江西省不同地区双季稻生育期的时空分布及其对气候变暖的响应特征进行了分析。结果表明:近30年江西省双季稻各生育阶段的平均气温均呈上升趋势,且以早稻播种—移栽期和晚稻移栽—抽穗期最明显。自2011年以来,早稻播种、移栽和抽穗期均表现为提前的趋势,成熟期变异较大,但主要表现为推迟的趋势,晚稻各生育期均表现为推迟的趋势。对各生育阶段持续时间的年际变化而言,早稻播种—移栽期、抽穗—成熟期和全生育期主要表现为延长的趋势;移栽—抽穗期的差异较大,赣北、赣中地区呈缩短的趋势,赣南地区呈延长的趋势;晚稻移栽—抽穗期和全生育期呈延长的趋势,播种—移栽期和抽穗—成熟期主要表现为缩短的趋势。随着气候的变暖,早稻的播种—移栽期、移栽—抽穗期和晚稻的播种—移栽期、抽穗—成熟期、全生育期均呈缩短的趋势,且与该阶段的平均气温呈负相关,但早稻的抽穗—成熟期、全生育期,以及晚稻的移栽—抽穗期之间的变异较大。因此,江西省早稻可适时提前播种,晚稻可适当推迟收割,并选用推广生育期较长且耐高温品种。

     

    Abstract: Based on daily mean temperature data from 1994 to 2023 and double-cropping rice growth period data from 12 agro-meteorological stations in Jiangxi, the spatiotemporal change of double-cropping rice growth period and its response to climate warming in different regions of Jiangxi were analyzed. The results showed that the mean temperature during each growth period of double cropping rice showed an upward trend in last 30 years, especially for period of the sowing to transplanting of early rice and the transplanting to heading of late rice. Since 2011, the sowing date, transplanting date and heading date of early rice in most stations were advanced, a large variation existed on maturity date, but mainly delayed, and the growth periods of late rice delayed. For the interannual variation of the duration of each growth period, the period of the sowing to transplanting, heading to maturity and the whole growth period of early rice were mainly prolonged, the duration of transplanting to heading varied greatly, showed a shortening trend in northern and central Jiangxi and an extending trend in southern Jiangxi. The period of transplanting to heading and the whole growth period of late rice were prolonged, and the duration of sowing to transplanting and transplanting to heading transplanting to heading transplanting to heading was mainly shortened. As temperature increased, the duration of sowing to transplanting and transplanting to heading of early rice and sowing to transplanting and heading to maturity, whole growth period of late rice presented a shorten trend, which had a negative correlation with mean temperature. The duration of heading to maturity, whole growth period of early rice and transplanting and heading of late rice varied greatly. Under the background of climate warming, the sowing period of early rice in Jiangxi can be appropriately advanced, the reaping time of late rice can be delayed, and the varieties with longer growth period and high temperature resistance.