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基于AHP-FCE的云南立地环境下蓝莓园选址及品种优选

Selection of Blueberry Location and Preferred Varieties in Yunnan’s Environment Based on AHP-FCE

  • 摘要: 运用层次分析法(AHP)构建包含目标层、准则层、因素层和指标层的综合评判指标体系,对云南蓝莓园选址和品种选择进行定量评价,并邀请多位蓝莓行业资深专家,在观看不同蓝莓品种在不同产区的影像资料后,使用FCE评测表对各品种进行评估。结果表明:从业者在产区选择上更倾向权重达0.6986的早熟产区,其次是中熟产区,最后考虑晚熟产区;从品种方面来看,南高丛蓝莓优势显著,权重为0.7504,从指标层权重综合来看,≤ 7.2 ℃时数、淡季上市获高价等指标在决策中占据重要地位; FCE模糊综合评价显示北高丛蓝莓适宜中熟和晚熟产区,不适宜早熟产区,南高丛蓝莓适宜早熟和中熟产区,晚熟产区需了解品种特性后选择性种植,兔眼蓝莓总体得分低,目前主要作授粉应用。研究结果能为云南蓝莓产业品种布局提供关键参考,帮助种植户优化种植结构,提升果实产量与品质。

     

    Abstract: We constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system containing target layer, criterion layer, factor layer and index layer by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and conducted a quantitative evaluation of blueberry orchard location selection and variety selection. Multiple senior experts in the blueberry industry were invited to watch the video materials of different blueberry varieties in different production areas, and then scored them using the FCE evaluation form. The results show that practitioners prefer early-maturing production areas with a weight of 0.6986 when it comes to production area selection, followed by mid-maturing areas, and finally consider late-maturing areas. In terms of varieties, Southern Highbush blueberries have a significant advantage with a weight of 0.7504. From the perspective of the comprehensive weight of the index layer, indicators such as“number of hours ≤7.2 ℃” and“high prices obtained during off-season listing” play an important role in decisionmaking. The FCE fuzzy comprehensive evaluation shows that Northern Highbush blueberries are suitable for mid-ripening and late-ripening production areas, but not for early-ripening production areas. Southern Highbush blueberries are suitable for early-ripening and mid-ripening production areas, while selective planting is required in late-ripening production areas after understanding the variety characteristics. The overall score of Rabbit Eye blueberries is low, and they are currently mainly used as pollinators. The results of this study can provide a key reference for the variety layout of Yunnan’s blueberry industry, helping growers optimize the planting structure and improve the yield and quality of fruits.