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中国农业强国水平测度及时空演变差异研究

Research on Level Measurement and Spatiotemporal Evolution Difference of Agricultural Power in China

  • 摘要: 通过构建农业强国指标体系,并采用熵值TOPSIS法、非参数核密度估计(KDE)曲线图和Moran’s I指数散点分布图测算并评价了2010—2020年我国30个省(区、市)的农业强国水平及其时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)2010—2020年我国农业强国水平总体呈上升趋势,但存在地区发展不同步,均值排名前3位的省份分别是山东(0.471)、江苏(0.401)、河南(0.399),具体表现为东部地区最优,中部地区次之,东北地区和西部地区紧随其后。(2)我国农业强国发展水平具有一定的地理空间聚集特征,东部地区以“高—高”组合为主,西部地区以“低—低”组合为主,中部地区和东北地区以“高—低”“低—高”组合为主。(3)在5个农业强国指标中,产品韧性和竞争能力水平发展相对较好,供给保障水平次之,科技装备和经营体系水平的发展略微靠后。我国各区域农业强国水平整体呈上升态势,发展存在空间差异,但时间演变差异不明显;我国地域辽阔,不同区域间禀赋的差异显著。鉴于此,提出了因地制宜地制定和实施农业强国战略、不断完善现代化农业生产和经营体系、推进区域间合作交流与协调发展等建议。

     

    Abstract: The paper constructs the index system of agricultural power, calculates and evaluates the level and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of agricultural power in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2010 to 2020 by the entropy TOPSIS method, non-parametric kernel density estimation (KDE) and Moran’s I index scatter diagram. The results show that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the level of China’s agricultural power was on the upward trend, but regional development was not synchronized. The top three provinces in the average value were Shandong (0.471), Jiangsu (0.401) and Henan (0.399), which were the best in eastern region, followed by the central region, the northeast region and western region. (2) The development level of China’s agricultural power has certain geographical spatial agglomeration characteristics, the eastern region is mainly “high-high” combination, the western region is mainly “low-low” combination, the central and northeast regions are mainly “high-low” and “low-high” combination. (3) The products of agricultural power index is relatively good, the supply guarantee level is second, and the development of science and technology equipment and management system is slightly backward. The level of China’s regional agricultural powers is on the rise, and the spatial difference of development always exists, but the difference of time evolution is not obvious. China has a vast territory, and the endowment difference between different regions is very obvious. In view of this, it is proposed to formulate and implement the strategy of agricultural power according to local conditions, constantly improve the modern agricultural production and operation system, promote regional cooperation, and strengthen the coordinated development among regions.