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城市紧凑度与碳排放强度协调发展研究——以西北五省33个城市为例

Study on Coordinated Development of Urban Compactness and Carbon Emission Intensity: A Case Study of 33 Cities in Five Northwestern Provinces

  • 摘要: 城市是全社会碳排放的主要来源之一,城市空间结构会对城市碳排放产生重要的影响。首先,通过构建城市紧凑度评价指标体系,并运用熵值法测算了城市紧凑度;其次,借助Kaya碳排放恒等式,计算了各城市的碳排放强度;最后,运用耦合协调模型和地理探测器对影响西北地区城市的紧凑度与碳排放强度耦合协调的变化趋势及其驱动因素进行了分析。结果表明:(1)西北地区城市紧凑度在2006—2021年期间整体呈上升趋势,紧凑度高值区主要集中在5个省份的省会城市,紧凑度低值区主要分布在经济、人口密度较低的小城市,酒泉市的城市紧凑度历年均在倒数4名之内;(2)西北地区碳排放强度在2006—2021年期间整体呈下降趋势,下降幅度较大,高碳排放强度区逐渐向西北方向移动,总体上呈现出中间高、两边低的空间格局;(3)西北地区城市紧凑度与碳排放强度的耦合协调度在2006—2021年期间呈略微上升趋势,整体增幅为0.12,状态从濒临协调达到初级协调。根据地理探测器影响因素识别得出对耦合协调影响最大的因素为科技创新,对耦合协调贡献最小的因素为就业水平。

     

    Abstract: Cities are the main sources of carbon emissions in the whole society, and urban spatial structure has an important impact on urban carbon emissions. In this paper, firstly, the evaluation index system of urban compactness was constructed, and the entropy method was used to measure the compactness of the city. Secondly, with the help of Kaya’s carbon emission identity,the carbon emission intensity of each city was calculated. Finally, the coupling coordination model and geographic detector were used to analyze the trend and driving factors of the coupling coordination between compactness and carbon emission intensity in Northwest China. The results showed that:(1) During 2006~2021, the urban compactness in Northwest China showed an upward trend as a whole, and the high-value areas of compactness were mainly concentrated in the provincial capitals of the five provinces, and the low-value areas of compactness were mainly distributed in small cities with low economic and population density, and Jiuquan City was in the bottom four for all years.(2) During 2006~2021, the carbon emission intensity in Northwest China showed a downward trend as a whole, with a large decline, and the high carbon emission intensity area gradually moved to the northwest, showing a spatial pattern of high in the middle and low on both sides.(3) The coupling coordination degree of urban compactness and carbon emission intensity in Northwest China showed a slight upward trend from 2006 to 2021, with an overall increase of 0.12, and the state finally reached primary coordination from the verge of coordination. According to the identification of the influencing factors of geographic detectors, the factor that has the greatest impact on coupling coordination is scientific and technological innovation, and the factor that has the least contribution to coupling coordination is employment level.